The Wolf Of Few Streets

The market at the moment remains flat due to uncertainties on government debt and this is holding back investors from any movements. A flat market is always characterized by demand equalling supply, and for a shift to occur, the market is awaiting some notable event. There aren't many such events this week, and it's doubtful that anything can outshine the primary issue with government debt. However, investors are keeping an eye on events, and market fluctuations may occur leading up to the decision on raising the debt limit.

Today at 18:00GMT FOMC minutes will be released and investors will evaluate the content of the May meeting, following which the regulator raised the rate by 25 basis points. As per CME Group data, the probability of maintaining a 5.25% annual rate stands at 84.7%. This means that at the moment the negative for the markets in connection with the rate is unlikely. I am inclined to flat in the near future, however, I do not exclude that if the markets see some negative in the protocols, no one will pass up the opportunity to gather liquidity at the 25,000 level. Given that a positive scenario (a pause in rate increases) is already priced, I think that it is unlikely to find something for growth in such an event. Therefore, in the near future, we only need to follow the news on debt negotiations. Presently, the support level is at 26,700, since the candle hasn't closed below this level in the past 60 days on 1D chart. The main trend remains up, the market just needs to wait out all the negative in order to continue growth.

Intraday support is now provided by 26500. Despite the strengthening of the dollar, the bears are unable to gain a foothold below the level of 27000. This indicates strong demand at this level. I always pay attention to such things, because when the crypto market does not show a decline in clearly bearish circumstances, this indicates that the market is dominated by the desire to find a reason to grow and very often such a reason can be found, perhaps even a trifling one. Powell is scheduled to speak at 15:00GMT today. Considering that the market has been absorbing the negative from other FOMC members in recent days, it may make sense to count on a small positive that will cause a correction in the dollar and give strength to continue the rally in the crypto market. I am more inclined to the scenario that in the coming days the market should recover to the level of 28000.

0.4 MoM and 4.9 YoY. A little bit better

CPI data will be released in 4 minutes, market expectation is 0.4% MoM and 5% YoY. I'm more inclined towards a positive scenario, but let’s see.

This is actually a black swan for BTC. I think the logical outcome of this situation is to move from bitcoin to altcoins. The dominance of bitcoin should decrease and there is an opportunity for large alts to start growth. What is the point of using old technologies that are completely unsuitable for modern conditions.

The crypto market celebrates the anniversary of the Luna event with an overload of the bitcoin network. From this moment on, the middle of May is definitely the best time for surprises.

The week ahead is very eventful. Events that I've highlighted in bold have the potential to significantly impact the market, while events in regular font may cause noise movements in the markets. The market is anticipating the release of the following data:

Today
14:00 GMT - U.S. JOLTs Job Openings
Wednsday, May 312:15 GMT - U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
13:45 GMT - U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
14:00 GMT - U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
18:00 GMT - FOMC Statement
18:00 GMT - Fed Interest Rate Decision
18:30 GMT - FOMC Press Conference

Thursday, May 4, 202312:30 GMT - Initial Jobeless Claims Friday, May 5, 2023
12:30 GMT - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
12:30 GMT - Unemloyment rate (Apr)

Tomorrow, I will write in more detail about my expectations. But on the eve of the interest rate decision, the market maximizes the negative sentiment. At the moment, Asian indices are all in the red, and I think the American session will also be dominated by negativity.

Which altcoins do you think have the best chances for growth in May?

Reports of US Government seized BTC being moved false.

This intensified the fall, now the market will calm down a bit.

Since February last year, there was a rally from the 33,000 level to 48,000. Then, starting in April, there were consecutive red months. Now, April is shaping up to be interesting as well 😅. I'm not hinting at anything, as there are no fundamental reasons for this yet, but it's a bit concerning.